Psychology Prediction Essay

According to one of my favorite philosophers, Yogi Berra, Its hard to predict, especially the prox. Hes right but it doesnt stop many people from trying. In fact predicting the future is essential to many aspects of our lives in business, and beyond. Many professionals direct the need to accurately predict outcomes of the future to be successful in their jobs. And many have occupations where predicting the future actually is their job, one way or a nonher. As an analyst at Gartner, I am of course a well behaved example of this.Some of this is common sense. Some is controversial. Some goes completely against what most think and against what people are taught even at organizations who train people to do predictive type jobs. But it works for me.Here are my ten guiding principles for accurate prediction1.Care about existence right. This sounds obvious but circumstances and other requirements often get in the way. Professionals whose job involves making predictions face pressures to have an opinion, no matter what, and to generate visibility. This stand lead to quickly formed opinions and overstating and over hyping things. While these things may in fact need to be part of a strategy, they do not have to be the primary goal. Tempering such behavior by placing the goal of being right at a higher antecedency is one of the true keys to accurate prediction. You cant be afraid to be wrong, but you cant place being right at lower priority and expect to be good at predicting.2.Be an innumerate. Be extremely skeptical of any numbers. Many believe that numbers arrogatet lie. They dont of course, but people do. And they state the numbers that they want to state to make their case. And they get things confused. Numbers are more useful in flavour back at history than in predicting (looking back at history is helpful and numbers can help). Be especially wary of survey data. a great deal the questions are poorly formed and the respondents not necessarily knowledgeable . There is no substitute for talking directly to people to make sure that you go steady mise en scene and that they understand the question. And follow-up is possible.3.Ask yourself Why are they telling me this? Understand the motivations of lines of information. Everyone you meet has some type of agenda. Sometimes it is truly to educate you, usually not. It is critical to understand what the source of information wants you to think to put the information into context.4.Ask yourself What would I do? Put yourself in the shoes of the CEO or key decision shaping machine of the entity if possible. This is a key tool to predicting how companies and organizations forget behave. If the prediction is about that company, this is the major key. If it is more general, putting yourself in the shoes of multiples and playing out scenarios is helpful.5.Recognize that most of the time, you will know less than your sources. The world is full of specialists. Depending on circumstance, you may kn ow as much as your sources but there is almost always psyche who is more of an expert than you. So you need to develop strategies for assessing the credibility and honesty of a source. A useful tactic is to lead a discussion towards an knowledge base in which you do know a lot and footrace the sources honesty and credibility. This can help determine what weight to give the source6.Dont jump to conclusions. Whenever possible take your time. When pushed for an opinion, it is best to say if I had to have an opinion I would lean towards x, but not sidle up these types of things as predictions.7.Find bubbles, conventional thinking and poke at assumptions. Try to understand why most people have a certain belief and skeleton out what assumptions they have. Look for misunderstandings, confusion, motivations and social trends.8.Get information youre not supposed to have. Basic networking is essential to knowing your subject and to getting information youre not supposed to have (Obviousl y those subject to insider trading types of issues need to tread carefully here). Listen for slip ups. Put the pieces together. Fill in the holes. Speculate.9.Youre only paranoiac if youre wrong. Explore conspiracy theories. While they usually wont be the prediction, the exercise of examining possible conspiracy theories often is fruitful. Remember At the very least there is bound to be some aspect of the theory that has some truth to it and may point the way towards a good prediction. However, it is far more likely that stupidity or laziness, rather than conspiracy, is the cause.10.Constantly test, validate and refine. Every chance you get to talk to a person whose opinion you respect, test new theories. Every chance you talk to a source of information, test your theories and gauge their reactions. Be open to tweaks.